Stogie Commentary: Risk Is Where You Find It

Last month, Patrick S wrote a most interesting article on junk science. If you haven’t read it, you should take a few minutes and do so; it’ll  get you thinking.

That commentary prompted me to wonder about the related issue of risk. I find it fascinating how we perceive risk, how we deal with it, interpret it, and how we so often disregard it. So many factors play a part it’s impossible to generalize. But I think a large part is our general mathematical ignorance and our faith in what we think we know despite the evidence.

One recent example is a study that found exposure to secondhand smoke could double the likelihood of suffering from depression. Could be. Does it matter? Maybe, maybe not. It’s impossible to tell without a reference point, such as the general rate for depression.

No stories I saw provided that, which isn’t surprising since my cursory checks indicate authorities tend to disagree on the U.S. rate. For adults, many reports put it somewhere between 5-6% during a year. That’s roughly 1 in 18. Double it you’ve got 1 in 9. Sure, it’s greater, but I’ll guarantee you that isn’t how most people react when they hear “double.” If the change was reported as going from about 1 in 20 to about 1 in 10, would that sound as alarming?

Similarly, we don’t tend to associate high risk with things we’re comfortable with. Otherwise, why would we be willing to risk consuming so much rodent hair, excretion, insect parts, mold, maggots, and other disgusting things in what we eat and drink every day? Just take a spin through the FDA’s “Food Defect Action Levels: Levels of Natural or Unavoidable Defects in Foods that Present No Health Hazards for Humans.” Commenting in the New York Times, an op-ed writer noted “you’re probably ingesting one to two pounds of flies, maggots, and mites each year without knowing it.”

The cause of the risk is also important to the way we see it. And this is where we get closer to tobacco. First, though, detour to a substance nearly everyone would agree is more dangerous: crack cocaine. It’s been viewed as so dangerous, in fact, women have been imprisoned for using it while pregnant in the belief they were subjecting their babies to extreme risk. Now scientists who’ve actually studied the children as they grew report the impact “on children’s brain development and behavior appear relatively small,” according to the Times. The director of a major study said that while there are differences, “Are they big? No.”

Some things, I guess, can’t just be risky; they’ve got to be life-threatening.

We deal with risk and chance all the time. Some exploit it, some exaggerate it, some minimize it, and many don’t really understand it. That’s why we’re often so amazed with such statements as, “The odds are nearly 200 times greater you will die from flesh-eating bacteria (1 in 1 million) than you will win the Powerball lottery (1 in 200 million).”

Me, I’m getting ready to light up a 601 Red Robusto, and I know the risk of not enjoying it is very, very small.

-George E

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